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            <title>2012 Decoded</title>
            <link>http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/</link>
            <description>Campaign and election insight powered by National Journal&apos;s political team.</description>
            <language>en</language>
            <copyright>Copyright 2012</copyright>
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                <title>Future Convention Planners, Be Warned</title>
                <author></author>
                <description><![CDATA[<p>With Tropical Storm Isaac threatening the Gulf Coast, Republican Party officials said Saturday they will postpone convention activities originally scheduled for Monday in Tampa. It is the second straight Republican convention that will be cut short a day thanks to weather.</p>

<p>Both parties should take the hint: The practical benefits to holding a convention in late August or early September no longer apply. Now, in fact, there are ample reasons to hold a convention earlier, rather than later.</p>

<p>Republicans and Democrats always jockey for convention position. They must conduct their formal nominating processes in time to meet ballot deadlines in key states, but they each want to hold their events late enough to capture attention from undecided voters who haven't yet tuned into the campaign.</p>

<p>But the number of undecided voters who actually spend an evening watching the convention proceedings is incredibly small. Instead, the big speeches Mitt Romney and President Obama will give over the next two weeks will be spliced into soundbites and played in 30-second increments, which will reach more undecided voters than the speeches themselves.</p>]]></description>
                <link>http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/08/future-convention-planners-be.php</link>
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                <pubDate>Sat, 25 Aug 2012 23:07:34 GMT</pubDate>
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                <title>The Conversation On Guns That Never Happened</title>
                <author></author>
                <description><![CDATA[<p>A disgruntled former employee of an apparel company shot and killed a one-time co-worker and wounded nine others near the Empire State Building in New York on Friday. It was the third mass shooting in five weeks, after deadly rampages in Aurora, Colo. and Oak Creek, Wis. Overnight, 19 people were shot in Chicago, including 13 in a single half-hour span.</p>

<p>"There's more we can do to prevent gun violence. But I want this to at least be the beginning of a new discussion on how we can keep America safe for all our people," Obama wrote in the <a href="http://azstarnet.com/article_011e7118-8951-5206-a878-39bfbc9dc89d.html">Arizona Daily Star</a>, two months after another rampage that left six dead and gravelly wounded 13 others, including former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords.</p>

<p>If ever there were a moment to have that discussion, it is during a presidential campaign, when voters have the chance to choose between options. </p>

<p>But that discussion isn't happening. Entitlement spending is a subject of heated debate during the presidential campaign. It is no longer a faux pas to criticize a president traveling overseas. But gun control? That's still a third rail in American politics, one that neither President Obama nor Mitt Romney are willing to touch.</p>]]></description>
                <link>http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/08/the-conversation-on-guns-that.php</link>
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                <pubDate>Fri, 24 Aug 2012 18:08:48 GMT</pubDate>
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                <title>Debunking the Not-So-Swift Swiftboaters</title>
                <author></author>
                <description><![CDATA[<p>I think it's fair to say, with at least two big data points now in front of us (John Kerry in 2004 and Barack Obama in 2012; one could also throw in Bill Clinton, 1992 and 1996), that the Swiftboating of&nbsp;Democratic presidential candidates by aggrieved right-wing retired military people is a phenomenon that's not going to go away. </p>
<p>The Swiftboating worked brilliantly against the eponymous former Swift Boat captain John Kerry, a Silver Star-decorated war&nbsp;hero who somehow came out looking less tough than&nbsp;a GOP president who&nbsp;had spent the Vietnam War guarding Texas and a vice president who had dodged the draft five times. That's partly because Kerry, eternally anguished about his Vietnam service, failed to fight back in time against the appalling slurs on his record made by these military malefactors. </p><br />]]></description>
                <link>http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/08/the-notsoswift-swiftboaters.php</link>
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                <pubDate>Thu, 23 Aug 2012 15:18:57 GMT</pubDate>
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                <title>Campaign Ads in 2012 Gone Retro</title>
                <author></author>
                <description><![CDATA[Wasn't this supposed to be the "it's the economy, stupid'' campaign? Yet blasts-from-the-past issues are increasingly popping up out of left field in the 2012 race.<br /><br />Republican Mitt Romney has been airing a series of television ads <a href="http://www.nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/new-romney-ad-escalates-welfare-attack-on-obama-20120820">criticizing President Obama's welfare policy </a>that carry faint echoes of Ronald Reagan's attacks on "welfare queens.'' <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncjPBUW314c">Obama began airing a spot Wednesday</a> that chides Romney for not backing smaller class sizes, an issue that played out in statewide elections before the recession hit.<br /><br />But there's obviously strategies at work here beyond an affection for retro. Romney appears to be targeting white, working--class workers, while Obama's ads are aimed at voters who put education at the top of their list, like married women and Hispanics. <br /><br />Brace yourself for the sight of Romney in bellbottom jeans. <br />]]></description>
                <link>http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/08/campaign-ads-in-2012-gone-retr.php</link>
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                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Barack Obama</category>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Mitt Romney</category>
        
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">class sizes</category>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">welfare</category>
        
                <pubDate>Wed, 22 Aug 2012 15:18:38 GMT</pubDate>
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                <title>GOP Platform Could Boost Attacks on Romney&apos;s Abortion Stance</title>
                <author></author>
                <description><![CDATA[Republican Mitt Romney's campaign has been frustrated that President Obama has <a href="http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/07/why-is-obama-airing-another-mi.php">mischaracterized his position on abortion in several television ads</a>. The spots say Romney backed a law that would outlaw abortion, even in cases of rape and incest. Not true, says the Romney campaign. <br /><br />Now, with <a href="http://www.nationaljournal.com/njdebate/could-akin-damage-the-top-of-the-gop-ticket--20120821">Democrats all ginned up to exploit Missouri Senate candidate Todd Akin's "legitimate rape" remark</a>, the platform committee of the GOP convention is poised to hand its opponents more ammunition. The committee is expected tonight to approve, once again, an anti-abortion plank that does not include an exception for rape. The Republican National Committee isn't releasing the draft language, though spokeswoman Kirsten Kukowski says it's essentially the same as <a href="http://gop.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/2008platform.pdf">the 2008 platform</a>.<br /><br />"We don't get into specifics such as exceptions because that is left up to the states,'' she said. "We give a strong, 100 percent pro-life sentiment.''<br /><br />Tom McClusky, a spokesman for the anti-abortion Family Research Council, who is in Tampa monitoring the platform deliberations, said exceptions for rape or incest would set off alarms in the conservative wing of the party.<br /><br /><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun:yes">"Life is life. A baby shouldn't be punished for an act it didn't have a role in,'' he said. "</span>The platform lays out the principles of the party, and we want to show what those principles are. It's a standard we can hold candidates to.''<br /></p><p class="MsoNormal">The chairman of the platform committee is "Gov. Ultrasound,'' as Democrats derisively refer to Bob McDonnell of Virginia after he signed a law requiring women seeking abortions to get ultrasound exams. His role at the convention also gives Democrats fuel to accuse the GOP of waging a "war on women'' as Obama seeks to further widen the gender gap with Romney.</p><p class="MsoNormal">The Romney campaign tried to clarify its position on abortion to distance the nominee from Akin, saying "A Romney-Ryan administration would not oppose abortion in instances of rape.'' But don't expect Democratic attacks on Romney's abortion stance to ebb, considering vice presidential pick Paul Ryan's co-sponsorship of a "personhood" bill with Akin and the now-glaring absence of a rape exception in the platform.</p><p class="MsoNormal">UPDATE: Sure enough, Democrats ramped up their anti-Romney attacks after the platform committee approved the anti-abortion plank. Obama spokeswoman Lis Smith said: "Women across the country should take note of the Republican Party's position." Planned Parenthood Action Fund piled on: "The Republican Party platform approved today is Mitt Romney's agenda every bit as much as it's Todd Akin's agenda." <br /></p>]]></description>
                <link>http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/08/gop-platform-boosts-attacks-on.php</link>
                <guid>http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/08/gop-platform-boosts-attacks-on.php</guid>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Abortion</category>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Barack Obama</category>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Mitt Romney</category>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Paul Ryan</category>
        
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">convention platform; Todd Akin</category>
        
                <pubDate>Tue, 21 Aug 2012 13:11:23 GMT</pubDate>
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                <title>Newsweek: The Whiff Factor</title>
                <author></author>
                <description><![CDATA[<p>Once upon a time <i>Newsweek</i> magazine had, arguably,&nbsp;the best political coverage in the business (full disclosure: I'm a former staffer). Stocked with star reporters, columnists and writers, it blanketed the presidential races, often set the tone for other journalists and produced a closely read election book every four years. So when <i>Newsweek</i> turned out a cover like "Fighting the 'Wimp Factor'" in 1987, raising questions about whether George H.W. Bush was tough enough to be president, stuff happened: pundits went into overdrive, campaign flunkies got angry, and the magazine had impact. But when <i>Newsweek</i> tried to do a "Wimp Factor" cover again a few weeks ago -- this time about Mitt Romney -- no one seemed to care very much. </p>
<p>And this week, when enfant terrible historian Niall Ferguson published another over-the-top screed headlined,<a href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2012/08/19/niall-ferguson-on-why-barack-obama-needs-to-go.html"> "Obama's Gotta Go," </a>much talk ensued, but it wasn't about the political race. Mainly it was a lot of lamentation about&nbsp;how far off the mark Ferguson was, and about how far a once-great magazine, Newsweek, has fallen under the overrated and apparently overwhelmed Tina Brown, who thinks nothing of handing over a formerly coveted cover to anyone with a rant in hand.</p>

<p>Others have dealt amply with all the factual misrepresentations in the article; note, in particular, <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/08/as-a-harvard-alum-i-apologize/261308/">James Fallows in <i>The Atlantic</i></a><i> </i>and Dylan Byers in <i>Politico</i>. I would just like to point out how much Ferguson has gotten wrong since he appointed himself keeper of America's imperial flame and began desperately playing for public attention. In his books&nbsp;<i>The Cash Nexus</i> (2001) and then <i>Colossus</i> (2004), he urged Americans to fulfill their obvious destiny as the next "liberal" empire spreading democracy and Anglo-Saxon legalism across the globe. "The greatest disappointment facing the world in the twenty-first century," Ferguson wrote in <i>The Cash Nexus, </i>is that "the leaders of the one state with the economic resources to make the world a better place lack the guts to do it." When President George W. Bush invaded Iraq, Ferguson eagerly supported the war as evidence that Washington had finally shown some guts and was acting like the empire it ought to be; he also advocated a long-term occupation. But then, in later books and articles, Ferguson began to argue that the United States was succumbing to financial overstretch, having gotten deeply in debt to the rest of the world, especially China. All without any sense of irony.&nbsp; <br /></p><p>(<b>RELATED</b>: <a href="http://www.nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/obama-has-significantly-less-money-on-hand-than-romney-20120820">Obama Has Significantly Less Money On Hand Than Romney</a>) </p>
<p>Yet Ferguson has also been wrong in sounding alarms about the latter point. In 2009, Ferguson argued that more debt issuance would lead to higher interest rates and fiscal disaster; <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2009/06/the_bond_war.html">he was wrong</a>. Again in 2011, Ferguson argued that <a href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2011/05/01/sticker-shock.html">inflation was coming back</a>, leading the charge for those much-feared bond market vigilantes. He was wrong again.</p>
<p>Barry Diller, the money man keeping <i>Newsweek</i> afloat, has hinted recently that its days as a print publication are numbered. It's sad to say this, but perhaps he's got it right. Conjoined to Brown's <i>Daily Beast</i>, <i>Newsweek</i> is a wounded animal, and maybe it ought to be put out of its misery.&nbsp;That way, maybe, those who remember the magazine at all will remember the years when it was great. And we can all get back to real journalism.</p>]]></description>
                <link>http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/08/newsweek-the-whiff-factor.php</link>
                <guid>http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/08/newsweek-the-whiff-factor.php</guid>
        
        
                <pubDate>Mon, 20 Aug 2012 22:05:04 GMT</pubDate>
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                <title>Don&apos;t Forget: McCaskill Wanted to Face Akin</title>
                <author></author>
                <description><![CDATA[<div>Lost amid the exploding controversy over Missouri Republican Rep. Todd Akin's claims about "legitimate rape" is one of the reasons that Akin is the Republican Senate standard-bearer in the first place (at least for the moment).</div><div><br /></div><div>Sen. Claire McCaskill and the Democrats wanted him as her opponent.&nbsp;</div><div><br /></div><div>In the weeks before the August 7 primary, McCaskill and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee aired ads that ostensibly attacked Akin, but actually boosted his candidacy. The ads called said him a "true conservative" and questioned if he was "too conservative," hardly a negative in a GOP primary. One radio ad ended by noting that Akin "has been endorsed by the most conservative leaders in our country: Michele Bachmann and Mike Huckabee."</div><div><br /></div><div>McCaskill did air ads against all the Republicans in the race, but only the Akin ones included such glowing testimonials. With a wink and a nod, Democrats placed their bets that the conservative congressman would be her weakest foe in the fall, even if they're never publicly acknowledged it.</div><div><br /></div><div>"The suggestion that McCaskill would prefer to run against Akin would be a very unwise choice on her part," Akin spokesman Ryan Hite told the <i><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/democrats-signal-eagerness-to-face-todd-akin-in-missouri/2012/08/03/092bfbde-dd9e-11e1-9ff9-1dcd8858ad02_blog.html">Washington Post</a></i>, shortly before the primary.</div><div><br /></div><div>But so far, the Democratic meddling in the GOP primary is looking like a very smart investment. "Of the three [GOP primary] candidates, at least so far, he has shown himself to be out of the mainstream at least on a whole host of issues," Guy Cecil, executive director of the DSCC, said in an interview Wednesday.&nbsp;</div><div><br /></div><div>The only problem facing McCaskill and the Democrats now is that Akin may have made his biggest stumble early enough for the GOP establishment to twist his arm right out of the race. He can still withdraw <a href="http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/08/primary-rival-p.php">before 5 p.m. on Tuesday</a>.</div><div><br /></div><div>John Cornyn of Texas, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, essentially gave Akin a 24-hour ultimatum to get out of the race. "Over the next twenty-four hours, Congressman Akin should carefully consider what is best for him, his family, the Republican Party, and the values that he cares about," he said.</div><div><br /></div><div>Cornyn called Akin's comments "wrong, offensive, and indefensible."</div><div><br /></div><div><div>Adding to the pressure, Crossroads GPS, the Karl Rove-backed group that has already invested millions to unseat McCaskill, has also&nbsp;<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/08/20/crossroads-abandons-akin/">pulled up stakes in the state</a>&nbsp;following Akin's comments.&nbsp;</div></div><div><br /></div><div>Meanwhile, John Brunner, the businessman that finished second behind Akin in the primary, has reportedly been <a href="http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/08/primary-rival-p.php">making calls</a> about how he could get back into the race.</div><div><br /></div><div>McCaskill, as it turns out, may not get the opponent she wanted after all.</div> ]]></description>
                <link>http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/08/dont-forget-mccaskill-wanted-t.php</link>
                <guid>http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/08/dont-forget-mccaskill-wanted-t.php</guid>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Senate Races</category>
        
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Missouri Senate race</category>
        
                <pubDate>Mon, 20 Aug 2012 19:12:12 GMT</pubDate>
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                <title>Is Todd Akin Toast In Missouri?</title>
                <author></author>
                <description><![CDATA[<p class="MsoNoSpacing">There's been much heated commentary over Missouri
Rep. Todd Akin, the GOP's Senate nominee, and his comments on a Missouri
television station <span style="color:black;background:white">saying
<a href="http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/08/todd-akins-abor.php">"legitimate rape" rarely resulted in pregnancy</a>.</span> &nbsp;He <a href="http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/08/todd-akins-abor.php">quickly released a statement</a> clarifying his
remarks, but not apologizing for them.<o:p></o:p></p>

<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><span style="background-color: white; color: black; ">Here are my five
quick political takeaways from the burgeoning controversy.</span></p><p class="MsoNoSpacing"></p><p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="font-size: 13px; "><span style="background-color: white; color: black; ">1.&nbsp;</span><b style="color: black; ">Akin still holds even odds to defeat Claire McCaskill.&nbsp;</b><span style="background-color: white; color: black; ">&nbsp;</span><span style="background-color: white; color: black; ">Missouri is a Republican-trending state, and still conservative on social issues. This blunder is going to cost Akin dearly with &nbsp;female voters but the race is still a toss-up.&nbsp;There's a reason why Sen. Claire McCaskill was trailing badly to her three Republican primary opponents. Her job approval numbers are very weak in Missouri.</span></p><p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="font-size: 13px; "><span style="color: black; background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; ">In 2006, when McCaskill ousted GOP Sen. Jim Talent, it was her surprisingly strong performance in the rural parts of Missouri that put her over the top.&nbsp;(Note that Akin underscored his firm opposition to abortion rights in his&nbsp;<a href="http://politicmo.com/2012/08/03/akin-touts-not-downplays-support-of-earmarks/">clarifying statement</a>.)&nbsp;This controversy may not resonate as strongly in those parts of the state as it is currently in Washington.&nbsp; This race is still a toss-up.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="font-size: 13px; "><span style="background-color: white; color: black; ">To underscore how socially conservative much of Missouri is,&nbsp;<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MxE5--xK3co">check out this campaign ad</a>&nbsp;for Rep. Sam Graves in 2008 against Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes.</span><span style="background-color: white; color: black; ">&nbsp;&nbsp;</span><span style="background-color: white; color: black; ">This was a big House battleground race that year, when President Obama headed the top of the Democratic ticket.</span><span style="background-color: white; color: black; ">&nbsp;&nbsp;</span><span style="background-color: white; color: black; ">The ad, which attacked Barnes' social liberalism, drew controversy because some critics believed it referred to her as "Gay Barnes." But while the punditocracy mocked the ad, Graves won in a landslide.&nbsp;</span><b style="color: black; ">&nbsp;</b></p><p></p>

<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><span style="color:black;background:white">2. &nbsp;<b>Akin,</b>
<b>another not-ready-for-primetime
Republican Senate nominee</b>.&nbsp; &nbsp;For
the flak Mitt Romney gets over his political skills, it's his party's
not-ready-for-primetime battleground Senate nominees that are running behind
him.&nbsp; It's awfully ironic that Republican
strategists <a href="http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0812/79648.html">are (anonymously) carping</a> about Romney's pick of Paul Ryan potentially
costing them control of the Senate when in reality, it's the GOP's own weak nominees.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><span style="background-color: white; color: black; ">Romney could
conceivably win the battleground states of Missouri, Indiana, Florida, Ohio,
Pennsylvania, Michigan without the GOP winning any of those Senate seats. </span><span style="background-color: white; color: black; ">&nbsp;</span><span style="background-color: white; color: black; ">Josh Mandel (Ohio), Pete Hoekstra (Michigan)
and Tom Smith (Pennsylvania) are consistently running well behind the
presidential ticket.</span><span style="background-color: white; color: black; ">&nbsp; </span><span style="background-color: white; color: black; ">Akin will be in the
same situation after the dust settles from this controversy.</span><span style="background-color: white; color: black; ">&nbsp; </span><span style="background-color: white; color: black; ">And Republican strategists are still nervous
about Connie Mack's campaign in Florida, knowing that a more-polished Senate nominee
would probably be a favorite against Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla.</span></p>

<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><span style="color:black;background:white">3. <b>Don't blame the Tea Party for the
predicament.&nbsp; </b>Akin was not the tea
party-backed candidate in Missouri.&nbsp; In reality,
none of the three candidates Republicans ran in the race fit the definition to
a tee.&nbsp; But Akin, as a longtime <i>socially</i> conservative congressman who
<a href="http://politicmo.com/2012/08/03/akin-touts-not-downplays-support-of-earmarks/">defended earmarking</a>, hardly fits the profile.&nbsp;
He narrowly won a primary where none of the candidates captured excitement
from the GOP electorate.</span></p>

<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><span style="color:black;background:white">Most of the
other weaker-than-average Republican Senate nominees can't be blamed on the tea
party movement, either. Mandel won support from tea party groups, but also was
recruited by the party establishment.&nbsp; Hoekstra,
as a supporter of the TARP bailout, was opposed by many movement
conservatives.&nbsp; Smith is a self-funding
former Democrat. <o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><span style="background-color: white; color: black; ">The one
exception is state Treasurer Richard Mourdock, the tea party favorite who upset
Sen. Richard Lugar in the Indiana Senate primary.</span><span style="background-color: white; color: black; ">&nbsp; </span><span style="background-color: white; color: black; ">But while he's turned a guaranteed-Republican
seat into a competitive race, he's still a mild favorite to prevail over Rep.
Joe Donnelly, D-Ind.<br /><br /></span></p> ]]></description>
                <link>http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/08/is-todd-akin-toast-in-missouri.php</link>
                <guid>http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/08/is-todd-akin-toast-in-missouri.php</guid>
        
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Akin</category>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">McCaskill</category>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Obama</category>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">romney</category>
        
                <pubDate>Sun, 19 Aug 2012 22:17:58 GMT</pubDate>
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                <title>The GOP Counter-Argument On Medicare</title>
                <author></author>
                <description><![CDATA[<div>By picking Paul Ryan as his running mate, Mitt Romney is betting that the electorate's view of entitlements has changed in their favor this year. His campaign has been making the case that by having a conversation about Medicare, it allows them to bring President Obama's unpopular health care law into the equation as well.</div><div><br /></div><div>There's reason to take that argument seriously, strictly on the political merits. &nbsp;Obama's <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJb6tA1cXT0&amp;sns=em">first campaign ad on Medicare</a> hardly features the red-meat rhetoric against Romney-Ryan many expected. &nbsp;It spends as much time clarifying the Medicare provisions in Obama's health care law as attacking the Ryan plan, relying on the AARP to be a crucial validator in its message. &nbsp;</div><div><br /></div><div>Adding credence to the GOP's case: Polls conducted in 28 battleground districts for the National Republican Congressional Committee, obtained by <i>National Journal</i>, which suggest Republicans aren't as vulnerable on the Medicare debate as the conventional wisdom suggests. &nbsp;Their pollsters tested both the Republican message on Ryan's plan (Ryan's plan doesn't touch anyone over 55, preserves Medicare for future generations, invokes ObamaCare), and the Democratic message against it (end Medicare as we know it through voucher system, seniors pay more out of pocket, rates will go up). &nbsp;When the results of all 28 polls were aggregated together, the GOP argument prevailed 46 to 36 percent. &nbsp;</div><div>&nbsp;</div><div>Another counterintuitive finding from the polls showed that there was little correlation between the most senior-heavy districts and their response to the Medicare arguments. &nbsp;</div><div>&nbsp;</div><div>For example, in the <a href="http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/08/the-dcccs-first.php">Michigan district where the DCCC is airing its first Medicare-themed attack</a> against GOP Rep. Dan Benishek, the GOP argument prevailed 48 to 37 percent -- exactly by the same margin as the average of the 28 battleground districts. &nbsp;The district is a critical bellwether on the issue. &nbsp;It elected Benishek, a tea party-aligned congressman constituent angst over Obama's health care law. &nbsp; But it backed Obama for president in 2008, and contains the highest percentage of seniors in the state. The Michigan poll was conducted by the Republican polling firm The Tarrance Group, and surveyed 400 likely voters between April 10-11.&nbsp;</div><div><br /></div> ]]></description>
                <link>http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/08/the-gop-counterargument-on-med.php</link>
                <guid>http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/08/the-gop-counterargument-on-med.php</guid>
        
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">health care</category>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">NRCC</category>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Obama</category>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Romney</category>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Ryan</category>
        
                <pubDate>Fri, 17 Aug 2012 18:07:51 GMT</pubDate>
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                <title>Running Mates Gone Wild</title>
                <author></author>
                <description><![CDATA[<p>The conventional wisdom that has long dictated vice presidential politicking can be boiled down to a pair of hard and fast rules. Number One: do no harm. Number Two: never allow the bottom of the ticket to overshadow the top of the ticket.</p>

<p>Apparently Joe Biden and Paul Ryan never got the memo.</p>

<p>Here we are, fewer than three months removed from Election Day, and Barack Obama and Mitt Romney have entered full-fledged campaign mode, jetting breathlessly between battleground states to raise money, energize supporters and make their case to undecided voters. Yet for much of the past week, their efforts have been largely eclipsed by their running mates, whose activities have, for better or worse, commanded considerably more attention from the press.</p>]]></description>
                <link>http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/08/running-mates-gone-wild.php</link>
                <guid>http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/08/running-mates-gone-wild.php</guid>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Barack Obama</category>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Joe Biden</category>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Mitt Romney</category>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Paul Ryan</category>
        
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Barack Obama</category>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Iowa</category>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Joe Biden</category>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Mitt Romney</category>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Paul Ryan</category>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">veepstakes</category>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">vice president</category>
        
                <pubDate>Thu, 16 Aug 2012 23:45:18 GMT</pubDate>
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                <title>For Romney, China Attack Worth Backlash</title>
                <author></author>
                <description><![CDATA[<div>Mitt Romney's unwavering attempts to hammer China's unfair trade practices - and the White House's inability to corral those practices - was complicated Thursday when reports surfaced that his newly anointed running mate had voted against just such a provision in Congress two years earlier.&nbsp;</div><div><br /></div><div>Making matters worse, the revelation came the same day Paul Ryan delivered a fiery speech attacking President Obama's pliancy toward the Far East country - a faux pas Chicago didn't let slide. &nbsp;</div><div><br /></div><div>Paul Ryan, speaking in industrial-heavy Ohio, <a href="http://nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/ryan-china-treating-obama-like-a-doormat--20120816">said China must "play by the rules."</a>&nbsp;</div><div><br /></div><div>"They steal our intellectual-property rights," he said. "They block access to their markets. They manipulate their currency."</div><div><br /></div> ]]></description>
                <link>http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/08/for-romney-china-attack-worth.php</link>
                <guid>http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/08/for-romney-china-attack-worth.php</guid>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Barack Obama</category>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Mitt Romney</category>
        
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Barack Obama</category>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">China</category>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Mitt Romney</category>
        
                <pubDate>Thu, 16 Aug 2012 22:12:03 GMT</pubDate>
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                <title>Voter ID Ruling Could Put Pennsylvania in Play</title>
                <author></author>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Has a Pennsylvania court done what the Romney campaign has
been unable to: Erase President Obama's advantage in the state?<br /></p>

<p class="MsoNormal">A trial judge Wednesday upheld Pennsylvania's
much-criticized voter ID law, finding no evidence that voters in the state would
be disenfranchised despite testimony at trial that suggested that more than 750,000 voters lack the necessary government-issued identification to vote in November. (Advocacy groups and some experts have <a href="http://articles.philly.com/2012-07-27/news/32890193_1_new-voter-id-partisan-bias-brennan-center">argued</a> that the number is more than 1 million. Earlier estimates had the figure much lower, closer to 100,000.)<br /></p>And Robert Simpson, the commonwealth court judge who heard
the challenge to the law, didn't necessarily dispute those estimates in his
ruling. Simpson wrote that the plaintiffs in the case "are among the hundreds
of thousands of Pennsylvanians who are eligible to vote, but who lack an
acceptable form of ID." At the same time, Simpson acknowledged that the state
had offered no concrete proof of in-person voter fraud in the state--the evil
that the voter ID law was intended to remedy.<br /><br />

<p class="MsoNormal">Slam dunk, right? <br /></p>]]></description>
                <link>http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/08/voter-id-ruling-could-put-penn.php</link>
                <guid>http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/08/voter-id-ruling-could-put-penn.php</guid>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">2012</category>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Voting Behavior</category>
        
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Pennsylvania</category>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">recall</category>
        
                <pubDate>Wed, 15 Aug 2012 18:56:48 GMT</pubDate>
            </item>
      
    
       
            <item>
                <title>Campaign 2012 On Track to Tarnish Four Reputations</title>
                <author></author>
                <description><![CDATA[Joe Biden and Paul Ryan were the Capitol Hill veterans known for friendly relations - sometimes even working relations - across the aisle. Mitt Romney was the competent pragmatist who turned around the 2002 Olympics and enacted health coverage for almost everyone in Massachusetts. Barack Obama was the youthful symbol of hope and change.<br /><br />Where are these people and will we ever see them again? <br /><br />The latest exchange of Campaign 2012 - Romney calling Obama a desperate,
 angry candidate running a reckless, hate-filled campaign, and Obama's 
team responding by calling Romney "unhinged" - was the most ferocious so
 far. This is not a campaign destined to enhance reputations. The only 
question is how much wreckage it leaves behind.<br /><br />]]></description>
                <link>http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/08/campaign-2012-on-track-to-wrec.php</link>
                <guid>http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/08/campaign-2012-on-track-to-wrec.php</guid>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">2012</category>
        
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">presidential campaign</category>
        
                <pubDate>Wed, 15 Aug 2012 17:29:21 GMT</pubDate>
            </item>
      
    
       
            <item>
                <title>Future Not Guaranteed to Convention Speakers</title>
                <author></author>
                <description><![CDATA[In politics, nothing says you're the future more than getting a coveted prime time speaking slot at a national convention. Except when it doesn't. Keep that in mind as the two parties fill those slots for the upcoming conventions in Tampa and Charlotte. It can get pretty confusing.&nbsp;<div><br /></div><div>Only four years ago, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin was the unquestioned future of the Republican Party, the star of the convention in St. Paul and guaranteed to be a big deal at the convention in 2012. But four years later, she's not governor, not a nominee and not going to be speaking in Tampa. Instead, viewers will be watching the current "future stars," a constellation that includes officials totally unknown in 2008 -- Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Mary Fallin, Nikki Haley, Rick Scott, and Susana Martinez.</div><div><br /></div><div>(<b>PICTURES:</b>&nbsp;<a href="http://nationaljournal.com/pictures-video/republican-convention-speakers-pictures-20120806">Republican Convention Speakers</a>)<br /><br />The message convention organizers want to send is that this is not your father's -- or mother's -- Republican Party. They still remember -- can't forget -- the disastrous 1992 GOP convention in Houston when Patrick Buchanan's "culture war" speech pushed Ronald Reagan's final convention speech out of prime time. Intolerance was the message of Houston and all but forgotten was the need to build a coalition behind President George H.W. Bush. What won't be forgotten in Tampa is the need to elect this year's nominee, Mitt Romney. Speakers like Rubio, Fallin, Haley and Martinez can help there while presenting a more diverse party. And, with former Presidents George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush as well as former Vice President Dick Cheney not speaking, the party can spend less time dealing with a past that included that economic meltdown in 2008.<br /><br />For the Democrats, a little reminder of the past is very much on the agenda. Former President Jimmy Carter will be just a video. But former President Bill Clinton will have a prime time role introducing President Obama and reminding the electorate of the economic good times and the budget surplus the country enjoyed when he left office.&nbsp;</div><div><br /></div><div>The Clinton past will be balanced by a look at a party future almost certain to carry a Latin accent, with the 37-year-old mayor of San Antonio, Julian Castro, delivering the keynote address on Tuesday night. Just like Palin, Castro will be introduced as the future of the Democratic Party. Maybe he will be. It certainly turned out that way for the 2004 Democratic keynoter, a young Illinois state senator named Obama. But before Castro banks on that, he might check with other recent keynoters who were supposed to be the futures of their parties -- Katherine Ortega, Tom Kean, Susan Molinari, Ann Armstrong, Dan Evans and Harold Ford.<br /><br /> </div>]]></description>
                <link>http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/08/future-not-guaranteed-to-conve.php</link>
                <guid>http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/08/future-not-guaranteed-to-conve.php</guid>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">2012</category>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Barack Obama</category>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Mitt Romney</category>
        
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                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Christie</category>
        
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                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Convention</category>
        
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                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Obama</category>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Palin</category>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Republican</category>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Romney</category>
        
                <pubDate>Tue, 14 Aug 2012 22:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
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                <title>Ryan the Dealmaker vs. Ryan the Ideologue</title>
                <author></author>
                <description><![CDATA[<p>Ever since Mitt Romney named Rep. Paul Ryan as his vice presidential pick, he's been touting the Wisconsin Republican's bipartisan credentials. "This guy's a real leader," Romney said in their joint <em>60 Minutes</em> appearance. "He's reached across the aisle. He's worked with Democrats, Republicans. Tried to take on the toughest issues America faces."</p>

<p>The debate over what kind of Republican Ryan is -- a knuckle-dragging ideologue bent on smothering the size of the federal government, as Democrats insist, or a bipartisan dealmaker, as Romney claims -- will be one of the central fights in the broader war over defining the GOP ticket.</p>

<p>On Ryan's biggest issue -- the budget -- he has shown little willingness to compromise with Democrats. "This is not a budget. This is a cause," he said in 2011, when he rolled out the GOP spending plan.</p>

<p>Still, both sides have some ammunition.</p>

<p>Exhibit A for Romney is that Ryan worked with liberal Sen. Ron Wyden of Oregon last year to craft a bipartisan "white paper" on how to overhaul Medicare. It's still on Wyden's website, complete with<a href="http://www.wyden.senate.gov/priorities/bipartisan-health-options"> a photo of him huddling studiously with Ryan</a>. But Wyden has been working hard to distance himself from Ryan's broader budget blueprint and remove his name from GOP talking points.</p>

<p>"Governor Romney is talking nonsense," Wyden has said.</p>

<p>Last year, Ryan, the chairman of the House Budget Committee, also worked with his Democratic counterpart on the budget panel, Rep. Chris Van Hollen, D-Maryland, to unveil a proposal to allow a limited presidential line-item veto of spending. They even <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJLIhbk81lE&feature=player_detailpage">appeared side-by-side on MSNBC</a>. "We want to show we don't always go at each other's throats around here. We can actually agree on some things, and this is one of those things we agree on," Ryan said, as Van Hollen nodded. </p>

<p>Ryan's genial nature, even as the climate in the Capitol has soured, has made him friends across the aisle. But there is little in Ryan's recent record to indicate he is a big-picture compromiser with Democrats. His 2012 budget package passed this year out of the House with zero Democratic votes. The <em>New York Times</em>' Nate Silver has <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/11/a-risky-rationale-behind-romneys-choice-of-ryan/">pointed out</a> one measurement that ranks Ryan as "the most conservative Republican member of Congress to be picked for the vice-presidential slot since at least 1900."</p>

<p>Though Ryan talks regularly about striking a bipartisan deficit-reduction deal, he's been at the forefront of scuttling any packages that have appeared to have any momentum. In 2010, Ryan was a member of the bipartisan deficit-reduction panel chaired by Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson. Except that Ryan voted against the final commission plan (It included a tax hike). And a year later, when a bipartisan group of senators were whispering about a bipartisan deficit package of their own, Ryan's criticism helped derail the talks.</p>

<p>In a lengthy <a href="http://nymag.com/news/features/paul-ryan-2012-5/"><em>New York</em> magazine</a> profile earlier this year, Jonathan Chait wondrously asked, "How has Ryan managed to occupy these two roles in our national life--[nonpartisan fiscal] award-winning spokesman for those Americans demanding a bipartisan agreement to reduce the deficit, and slayer of bipartisan deficit agreements--simultaneously?"</p>

<p>Chait settled on Ryan's "remarkable talent for radiating good intentions." It's a talent that the rigors of a presidential campaign will put to the test.</p>]]></description>
                <link>http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/08/ryan-the-dealmaker-vs-ryan-the.php</link>
                <guid>http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/08/ryan-the-dealmaker-vs-ryan-the.php</guid>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">2012</category>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Mitt Romney</category>
        
                    <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">Paul Ryan</category>
        
        
                <pubDate>Tue, 14 Aug 2012 16:12:04 GMT</pubDate>
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